Satellite-enabled smartphones and IoT drive the next decade of global connectivity growth
Paris, France [December, 2025] – Novaspace’s 10th edition of Prospects for Direct to Handheld and IoT Markets reveals a decade of unprecedented connectivity growth. Over $100 billion in cumulative revenues are projected across all D2D and IoT segments by 2034, driven by mass-market adoption of satellite-enabled smartphones and next-generation IoT solutions.
Traditional handheld satellite phones face steep decline, with revenues falling to just over half of 2024 levels by 2034 as substitution accelerates. D2D broadband capabilities expected by 2028 will mark a major inflection point, unlocking higher-value tiers and expanding addressable markets.
“Direct-to-device is becoming a foundational layer of connectivity,” says Sumaiya Najarali, Manager at Novaspace. “The integration of satellite capabilities into everyday handsets and IoT devices marks a fundamental shift in how global networks are built and accessed.”
Direct-to-phone emerges as the breakout growth engine, supported by a global base of 8.8+ billion mobile subscribers and rapid inclusion of satellite features in standard mobile phones. This segment alone is forecasted to generate nearly $70 billion in cumulative service revenues over the next decade, as handset-native solutions cannibalize demand for traditional MSS hardware.
Satellite-cellular IoT will dominate device connections, accounting for over 95% of the total satellite-enabled IoT installed base by the end of the forecast period. Massive device volumes and NTN-standard compatibility will underpin this surge, with revenues projected to exceed $16 billion cumulatively, despite low ARPUs typical of large-scale IoT deployments.
Satellite operators are positioned to capture more than 50% of service revenues in emerging direct-to-phone connectivity business models, supported by heavy satellite-layer usage in unconnected regions and strengthened partnerships with mobile network operators. Early traction remains uneven, with China, North America, and select APAC markets leading adoption.
Overall, the D2D ecosystem offers significant revenue potential, but success will hinge on strategic integration models, spectrum-sharing frameworks, and partnerships across satellite and terrestrial networks.
About the Report
The 10th edition of Prospects for Direct to Handheld and IoT Markets delivers a 10-year forecast and strategic insights into D2D and IoT connectivity trends. It covers device volumes, service revenues, technology evolution, and competitive dynamics across all major segments, including direct-to-phone, satellite-cellular IoT, and traditional MSS. The Premium edition adds quarterly updates, extended databases, and detailed breakdowns of operator strategies, device roadmaps, and NTN-standard adoption.
About Novaspace
Novaspace is a global leader in space consulting and market intelligence, formed through the merger of Euroconsult and SpaceTec Partners. This strategic move combines the distinctive strengths of both entities to significantly amplify our international presence and service capabilities. With over 40-year legacy of expertise in guiding public and private entities in strategic decision-making, Novaspace offers end-to-end consulting services, from project strategy definition to implementation, providing data-led perspectives on critical issues. Novaspace presents an expanded portfolio of services, featuring combined expertise in management and technology consulting, top-tier executive summits, and market intelligence. Trusted by 1,200 clients in over 60 countries, with offices strategically located in Brussels, London, Montreal, Munich, Paris, Singapore, Sydney, Tokyo, Toulouse, and Washington D.C.