Commercial aviation NGSO penetration and bandwidth demand surge through 2035
Paris, France | May 2026 – Novaspace’s latest In-Flight Connectivity report points to sustained, long-term growth in the In-Flight Connectivity (IFC) market, with connected aircraft numbers to exceed 70,000 by 2035. Simultaneously, IFC penetration is expected to rise from 48% to 72% in commercial aviation and from 67% to 88% in business aviation.
“By the end of 2025, nearly 39,500 aircraft were connected globally, with business aviation accounting for around 70% of the fleet,” said Vishal Patil, Senior Consultant at Novaspace. “Momentum is now clearly shifting, with commercial aviation adoption set to accelerate significantly in the years ahead, driving a substantial increase in capacity demand and supporting long-term revenue growth across the IFC value chain.”
In commercial aviation, the shift toward NGSO connectivity is already well underway. NGSO’s share has grown rapidly from 1% in 2024 to 14% in 2025 and is forecast to reach 82% within the next decade, fundamentally transforming the IFC technology landscape. This transition is fueling a sharp rise in satellite capacity demand.
Overall, capacity leased for IFC services is projected to increase nineteen-fold over the next ten years, expanding from 212 Gbps to 3.9 Tbps by 2035. By the end of this period, NGSO-based solutions are expected to account for 89% of total leased capacity, driven by their ability to deliver high bandwidth, low latency, and resilient connectivity.
Despite declining unit capacity pricing, the revenue outlook for the IFC market remains strong with total operator revenues expected to rise to $2.9 billion by 2035, a 16% CAGR. NGSO-driven demand alone is anticipated to generate 87% of total operator revenues by the end of 2035, underscoring its central role in shaping the market’s economics.
About the Report
Novaspace’s In-Flight Connectivity report provides a comprehensive assessment of the evolving cabin connectivity market across commercial and business aviation. It analyzes the latest industry trends, service provider market shares, the competitive impact of new entrants, developments in the IFC equipment market, and the regulatory landscape.
Supported by a 10-year forecast, the report evaluates key market segments across addressable market size, active IFC-equipped aircraft, capacity usage, service ARPA, service revenues, capacity ARPU, and operator revenues.
About Novaspace
Novaspace is the leading independent consulting and market intelligence firm dedicated to the global space sector. Leveraging over 40 years of industry expertise, the company supports public and private stakeholders across the entire space value chain with high-impact, data-driven advisory services, combining management and technology consulting, market intelligence, and executive summits to help organizations navigate complexity, manage risk, and capture growth opportunities.
Trusted by more than 1,200 clients in over 60 countries, Novaspace operates globally with offices in Bangalore, Brussels, London, Montreal, Munich, Paris, Singapore, Sydney, Tokyo, Toulouse, and Washington, D.C.
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